The year 2021 was already the second year in a row that was consistently characterized by the Corona crisis and the associated supply shortages for numerous raw materials. Large gaps opened up in the production of industrial metals and crude oil in particular, not least as a result of the recovery of the global economy.
Experts expect the situation on the commodity markets to ease in 2022 and also assume that the general fear of a renewed recession will subside.
Danger of price slumps averted?
Experts agree that we will have to live with the corona virus in the future as well. Most analysts believe that renewed outbreaks of the pandemic caused by new virus variants will cause less severe reactions in the markets in the long term, so they see much less risk of sustained price declines this year.
However, analysts’ expectations for the most important commodity classes are partly contradictory.
The expectations for precious metals
Precious metals have always been considered crisis- and inflation-proof. While the price development of industrial metals and also crude oil depends primarily on the economy, the prices of precious metals develop primarily in line with current monetary policy.
While Jürgen Michels, chief economist at BayernLB, expects gold prices to fall sharply, Benjamin Louvet, fund manager at asset management company Ofi, believes the yellow precious metal will rise sharply to more than 2,000 U.S. dollars per troy ounce.
For the precious metals platinum and palladium, however, the experts clearly expect price increases for this year after the losses in 2021. The reason for this is the important role of platinum and palladium in the industry. Analysts expect demand to clearly exceed supply in 2022.
Price development for industrial metals
For industrial metals, experts do not expect further price increases and predict an end to the rally in metal prices. In particular, the expected appreciation of the US dollar will prevent further price increases, especially for copper and aluminum. Instead, the experts see copper and aluminum prices at roughly the same level as at present by the end of the year.
The estimates for crude oil and natural gas
In the case of crude oil and natural gas, the experts agree that there is no easing in sight. Oil production will continue to grow more slowly than demand in 2022, so oil prices are expected to continue to rise sharply.
Gas prices developed even more spectacularly last year. Ongoing tensions with Russia and below-average inventory levels already point to further price increases. A particularly long and cold winter could make the situation even worse and lead to a real gas supply problem.